If this sounds a bit complicated to you, then you can see this explained in the following examples. This formula converts the total goal average (both for and against) to the actual chances of exact goals being scored. For example, if Real Madrid’s goal average is 1.7 per game, the Poisson Distribution will allocate the goals percentages as follow: Chances for Real Madrid to score 0 goals in their next match are 18.3% | 1 goal 31% | 2 goals 26.4% | 3 goals 15%. In order to use the Poisson Distribution, you need to calculate the average number of goals each team has scored and conceded. These are called “Attack Strength” and “Defence Strength”, respectively. It is a fairly straightforward procedure; however, you must make sure your data is accurate before you start using Poisson. However, it’s logical that the Poisson Distribution works better with a sufficient number of data. Don’t expect to make accurate predictions at the start of a season when the teams have played only a couple of matches.
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