NFL underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 teased six points have covered 75.3% of the time. Favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered about 76% of the time. They cover at a high rate because many NFL games end in these margins, given how points are scored in football. But to break even on a 6-point, two-team teaser at -130, you need to win 75.2% of the time. Based on those same cover rates, your entire advantage is gone at -130. Since it's #teaser week in the NFL, I wanted to look at Stanford Wong's original teaser tables with updated data. Maybe don't leave out away teams in teaser legs🤔 pic.twitter.com/KnZaDFK1Mc — Benjamin Brown (@PFF_BenBrown) September 22, 2021.
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