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Ken from Auckland, New Zealand. Win 42.43% Lose 49.09% Draw 8.48% I’m totally baffled! If in an 8-deck or continuous shuffle blackjack game there is no difference in the probabilities of a card appearing at any time, why have you posted Blackjack Appendix #18? If the probabilities say hit on 16 vs. 7 or higher, how can the probabilities change if you have 5 or 6 cards as opposed to 2 cards? 16 is 16 no matter how you construct it, right? I see the change if the deck is shrinking or in a game like Spanish 21 where there is a bonus for 21 with 5 or more cards, but why in an 8-deck game or continuous shuffle? The reason the strategy changes, according to the number of cards in your hand, as shown in appendix 18, is that every card that leaves the deck changes the probabilities of every card left to be played. A good example is the single-deck basic strategy says to surrender 7,7 against a 10; but for any other 14 you should hit. The reason you should surrender is half the sevens have already been removed from the deck. You need another seven to make 21, the only hand that will beat a dealer 20. So the shortage of sevens lowers the expected value of hitting to under half a bet, making surrender the better play. Hi Wizard. Thanks for maintaining this web site! I have a question about a blackjack rule that is applied in Dutch casinos: When being dealt a pair of sevens, a third seven will earn you 2:1 on your bet, regardless if you win the hand or not. However, this only applies when the sevens have NOT been split. I know that there are 6 dealer up cards in basic strategy that allow splitting sevens and 7 that do not, so the player should have an edge in this particular situation. But what are the odds of being dealt 3 sevens in blackjack in the first place? And if dealt 3 sevens, what are the odds they qualify for the 2:1 pay-out rule, based on a 4 to 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17 basic strategy chart? Hope you can figure this one out for me. Keep up the good work! I show that rule is worth 0.026% to the player. Despite the incentive to hit 7,7 against a dealer 2-7, the player should still follow basic strategy and split.
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